Leader Week in Review
April 24, 2015
Economic Data Releases:
The yield curve steepened with the long end selling off 3bps on the 10 Year and 6bps on the 30 Year. Heavy corporate issuance was met with strong demand as Investment Grade spreads tightened 1 bp and High Yield spreads tightened by 3 bps. MBS spreads recovered after selling off mid-week.
Economists have fully written off Q1 and are looking ahead to a sharp recovery in Q2 (chart 1). So far though, a quick rebound does not look imminent and the hand off from Q1 data to Q2 could be weak the numbers we have seen so far for March. Analysts have consistently over-estimated the strength of US economic data since January (chart 2). With the first estimate of Q1 GDP, the April ISM Manufacturing PMI and the April Jobs report forthcoming, we will have major data points to assess how bad Q1 really was and how quickly the economy rebounds to trend.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases: