To Raise or Not to Raise
John Lekas – CEO & Senior Portfolio Manager
September 3, 2026
This quote from BCA Research sums up the most likely path for central banks on September 16, 2026.
“Inflation is not solved. Above target in the US, UK, and Euro Area. Elevated relative to its own history in Japan. And it sits one shock away from forcing central banks onto a tightening path markets are not pricing. That is the risk that matters most to the cycle. Expansions rarely die of old age. They get murdered by a central bank that lost credibility on inflation and has to catch up. Every cycle killed by monetary policy since Volcker has followed some version of this script: inflation surprises higher, real rates chase it, and cracks show first wherever leverage is highest.” — BCA Research
President Trump did not appoint Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair for his independent thinking; Warsh is more of a Hegseth look-alike. We do not believe the Fed will raise rates on September 16, 2026. Trump and Warsh are happy with a rising stock market and rising prices; and dampening inflation would put both at risk. Our view, therefore, is a 5.0% yield on the 10-year and 5.5% on the 30-year in the near term. To us, this looks like a repeat of 2022. The short end of the curve remains the best risk/reward.
We will do a pre-fed comment for each meeting. If you have questions please contact us directly.
Remaining Fed meetings in 2026
- September 16, 2026
- October 28, 2026
- December 9, 2026
Treasury yields across the curve and core PCE inflation
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